SWFL Real estate after Irma

The case study SWFL Real estate after Irma was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker Steelbridge Realty LLC/ Director SWFL REIA at the SWFL REIA luncheon in October.

Disclosure:

• This presentation is meant to provide some guidance from a statistical point of view.
• This is my work done for my use and shared with you.
• All data exported from MLS and trended with Microsoft excel.
• Data was exported on 10/4/2017

Real estate after Irma: First thing.

• Hurricanes have long had an influence on the Florida Real Estate market.
• The Florida Land Boom in the 20’s was finished off by the 1926 and 1928 hurricanes.

 

Real estate after Irma: Where is the market today?
Volume Jan thru Sept YTD
Lee County Residential

	2016	2017	DIFF
Volume	$  4,084,576,398	$4,360,981,530	6.77%
Counts	14,934	15,024	0.60%

 

Real estate after Irma: Pricing
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

	2016	2017	DIFF
Average	$273,509	$290,268	6.13%
Median	$205,000	$220,000	7.32%

 

Real Estate after Irma: Cash Sales Percentage.
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

	2016	2017	DIFF
cash	6,308	6,171	-2.17%
Cash %	42.24%	41.07%	-2.76%

 

Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Volume

	2016	2017	DIFF
Volume	$385,989,908	$278,857,948	-27.76%
Counts	1,499	989	-34.02%

Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Pricing

	2016	2017	DIFF
Average	$257,498	$281,960	9.50%
Median	$209,000	$225,000	7.66%

 

Here is what the year looks like.

Hurricane Charley:

• Hurricane Charley made landfall in SWFL on 8/13/2004 near the island of Cayo Costa, Florida as a 150 mph (240 km/h) Category 4 hurricane
• The real estate market was in a boom that was beginning to turn into a mania. Charley brought a lot of attention to the market, brought an influx of insurance money and reduced some inventory.

 

 

Hurricane Wilma:

• Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Cape Romano, Florida on Monday, October 24, 2005.
• Statistically, I can prove the SWFL Real Estate market had started divergence to the downside in August of 2005. Wilma caused people up north to pause. Rapidly rising prices compounded this.
• Wilma really ended the manias demand. Leverage is what carried any momentum from there.

Real estate after Irma: Some numbers of note.

• August 2004 (Charley Landfall) sales were down -23.92% from the previous month.
• October of 2005 (Wilma Landfall) sales were down -27.07% from the previous month.
• September of 2017 (Irma’s landfall) sales were down -41.24% from the previous month.

Notes:

• I am putting more weight on the trends from Charlie than Wilma due to the current trajectory of the market.
• There are 1610 properties pending in Lee County from the last 60 days.
• In the last 10 days 453 properties have went pending. (10/4/2017)

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.

	2016	2017	DIFF
Volume	$4,244,646,006	$4,683,933,70	10.35%
Counts	7,553	7,880	4.33%

 

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.

	2016	2017	DIFF
Average	$561,981	$594,408	5.77%
Median	$326,150	$340,000	4.25%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.

	2016	2017	DIFF
Cash	3,813	4,083	7.08%
Cash %	50.48%	51.81%	2.64%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.
September Only.

	2016	2017	DIFF
Volume	$      344,532,804	$231,008,708	-32.95%
Counts	700	422	-39.71%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.
September Only

	2016	2017	DIFF
Average	$              492,190	$547,414	11.22%
Median	$              320,000	$330,000	3.13%

 

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.
September Only

	2016	2017	DIFF
Cash	332	211	-36.45%
Cash %	47.43%	50.00%	5.42%

 

Hurricane Charley Sales Counts Patterns for Collier.

 

Real Estate After Irma: Some Thoughts.

• Irma will be a more significant event for Collier and Bonita.
• Kudos to the new building codes. The new construction industry should benefit.
• Older resale’s may have issues with sentiment going forward. Especially older waterfront resale’s.
• Watching the pending thru February will be on my radar. As will the foreclosure filings.
• There will be opportunities in the non-bank distressed market.
• Insurance companies appear to have gotten better at mass events in relation to loss prevention. I have spoke with several people where the insurance company has “approved vendors”. This will have an affect on local contractors.

Real Estate After Irma: Foreclosures.

• I have seen interviews with public and private individuals referring to a bump in the foreclosures.
• You have to understand the timeline to understand the possible trends.
• The earliest a foreclosure will be filed is roughly 90 days from today. Then you have generally a 6 month process.
• Due to our high percentage of cash sales since 2009. It is unlikely to trigger a mass event like the end of the last cycle.

~ Stay tuned (subscribe and follow) for updates going forward.

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During the beginning of the housing downturn Steelbridge Realty LLC was the Brokerage arm of several private equity entities. We assisted them with asset modeling and market metrics. Many prominent local commercial projects were included in this scope of transactions. in 2012 Jeff and Cristina bought the other partner out and relocated the company to North Fort Myers. It now serves as a boutique style firm cater to it clients and the community at large.

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